Human beings like to feel they can control the world. The passion of political activists is fueled by their belief that they know how to improve things. In reality the activists' results are sometimes minimal, neutral or even detrimental. Part of the appeal of such belief is that the alternative is unpleasant: to admit our limitations.
The belief that the State of Israel is a solution to the Holocaust has great emotional appeal, to put it mildly. All Jews hope "never again" and most of us believe Israel will prevent it or reduce the possibility. Good Jews have debated the issue of Zionism. There are good reasons to support (and oppose) Zionism. Israel is currently a vehicle for establishing six million Jews in their homeland. That alone is a reason to support Israel. Preventing a future holocaust is not a good reason.
The basic error of "Israel prevents holocausts" ideology is in overlooking the possibility that a holocaust could happen in Israel itself (G-d forbid). This is not mere theoretical speculation. In fact this almost did happen. Israel nearly lost the wars of 1948, 1967 and 1973. If that had happened would these same ideologues have continued their ideology?
Even if we take these military victories for granted, it is not clear the state is a means for Jewish safety. Simply put, more Jews have been killed in Israel since the Holocaust than anywhere else. On what basis is the state a "solution" to the Holocaust?
Suppose we were to survey secular Israelis (this excludes belief in Divine protection as a variable) whether they think the state will still exist for another century or two. I have no doubt
many respondents would be at best unsure of the matter. We are talking about Jews who live in Israel and believe in it. Who can really say that Iran will not send a WMD into Israel within the next century, (G-d forbid)?
It may be true that Israel's existence reduces certain risk factors. But it also increases other risk factors. The state concentrates many Jews in one place. It also inflames anti-semitism in the Arab and Muslim world. This makes genocide in Israel a possibility (G-d forbid). We do not know all the risk factors and cannot be certain which factors will predominate.
G-d controls the world yet demands human effort. One must not jump off a roof merely because G-d decides on Rosh Hashana whether one will live. Neither should one sit idly because one's income is decided on Rosh Hashana. Many similarly argue Israel represents a necessary human effort (hishtadlus) for Jewish protection. We can't do nothing, they say. G-d helps those who help themselves!
This sounds compelling but there is a counterpoint. In the first two examples it is clear what human responsibility dictates. Is this the case with the state of Israel? Religious Zionists, with good basis, assert that the creation and perpetuation of the state is miraculous. One Rabbi has argued that they are in effect relying on a miracle. Does this represent hishtadlus, or its opposite? How do we know whether it is more prudent to trust in miracles in Israel or outside of it?
It can be scary to admit we do not know how G-d runs the world. That we think we know how to prevent or mitigate the next holocaust does not make it so. The variables are beyond our reckoning. Our job is not to control the future but to do what G-d wants of us. Many Jews have good reasons to believe their calling is to live in Israel. They are doing a mitzva. A mitzva is a service to the One who commands it. It is not a tool to dictate human destiny.
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